[QUOTE=Youssarian;410920]Thisismyuser provided a mathematical explanation a couple pages back on why every person has the same chance of picking the kill card:[/QUOTE]
No. Everyone at the start has the same chance of picking a kill card but whenever one person gets a blank the percentages get bigger and bigger for the other players. So whoever is 1st always has a 1/4 chance of getting the killcard but whoever is 2nd goes from a 1/4 chance to a 1/3 chance if the 1st person doesn't get the kill card and so on. So it's always best to go first.
[QUOTE=JayTee;411071]No. Everyone at the start has the same chance of picking a kill card but whenever one person gets a blank the percentages get bigger and bigger for the other players. So whoever is 1st always has a 1/4 chance of getting the killcard but whoever is 2nd goes from a 1/4 chance to a 1/3 chance if the 1st person doesn't get the kill card and so on. So it's always best to go first.[/QUOTE]
Nah, let me explain it to you.
1st person: 1/4 chance kill card. 1/4
2nd person: 3/4 1st person didn't get, 1/3 chance to get kill. 3/4 * 1/3 = 1/4.
3rd person: 1/2 1st & 2nd didn't get. 1/2 chance to get kill. 1/2*1/2 = 1/4
4th person: 1/4 chance 1st&2nd&3rd didn't get. 1/4
This is exactly what myuser said.
don't you have to find a common denominator before you multiply fractions? in which case, his math would be wrong.
Edit: nervmind...google is a wonderful thing.
[QUOTE=IAMNEMESIS;411080]still you cannot deny the fact that no first or even second person in the draw has pulled the kill card. mathematics and logic do not always agree.[/QUOTE]
I believe that's called chance and coincidence.
[QUOTE=IAMNEMESIS;411080]still you cannot deny the fact that no first or even second person in the draw has pulled the kill card. mathematics and logic do not always agree.[/QUOTE]
Maybe we should wait until the seasons over to day this because it could happen next episode or maybe the final draw
[QUOTE=Youssarian;411085]I believe that's called chance and coincidence.[/QUOTE]
good point...perhaps you are right...we have like 4 episodes left before the final? I guess we shall see.
[QUOTE=IAMNEMESIS;411094]good point...perhaps you are right...we have like 4 episodes left before the final? I guess we shall see.[/QUOTE]
We still have like 6 epsiodes
[QUOTE=toenails;411076]It is amazing to me that people are literally denying the math. As if mathematics is subjective. Here is a hint: it's not.[/QUOTE]
The math is fairly simple to understand:
if there are 5 cards, 5 people, then everyone has a 1/5 chance.
first person flips his card and it's a blank now the remaining 4 ppl have a 1/4 chance.
next person flips it and gets a blank, now the remaining 3 people have a 1/3 chance of getting the killcard.
and so on.
You can't have a 1/4 chance of getting the killcard if there are 3 cards on the playing field.
Bottom line is that being the 1st one to flip your card gives you the highest chances of not getting the killcard.
[QUOTE=EstimatedRoa;411072]Nah, let me explain it to you.
1st person: 1/4 chance kill card. 1/4
2nd person: 3/4 1st person didn't get, 1/3 chance to get kill. 3/4 * 1/3 = 1/4.
3rd person: 1/2 1st & 2nd didn't get. 1/2 chance to get kill. 1/2*1/2 = 1/4
4th person: 1/4 chance 1st&2nd&3rd didn't get. 1/4
This is exactly what myuser said.[/QUOTE]
People don't understand simple math
[QUOTE=JayTee;411102][B]Bottom line is that being the 1st one to flip your card gives you the highest chances of not getting the killcard.[/B][/QUOTE]
This is called not understanding simple math...perfect example
The chances are equal for everyone. That's a mathematical fact not an opinion. This is SIMPLE math--at the highest 5th grade level math
[QUOTE=JayTee;411102][B]You can't have a 1/4 chance of getting the killcard if there are 3 cards on the playing field.[/B]
[/QUOTE]
You're ignoring the odds of the card being drawn before the pick
[QUOTE=kvm1977;411104]This is called not understanding simple math...perfect example
The chances are equal for everyone. That's a mathematical fact not an opinion. This is SIMPLE math--at the highest 5th grade level math[/QUOTE]
Before anyone draws the chances are equal for everyone.
But once the first card is drawn and is shown to be a blank then the remaining people have a higher chance of getting the kill card since there are less cards to choose from. Simple logic.
[QUOTE=JayTee;411106]Before anyone draws the chances are equal for everyone.
But once the first card is drawn and is shown to be a blank then the remaining people have a higher chance of getting the kill card since there are less cards to choose from. Simple logic.[/QUOTE]
You can't ignore the first card being pulled...odds don't reset--they are start even. The likelihood of each grabbing the kill card are equal. You're not making any sense. You're ignoring math & logic despite what you may think. Honestly, just stop--you're smarter than you're coming across right now
[QUOTE=kvm1977;411109]You can't ignore the first card being pulled...odds don't reset--they are start even. The likelihood of each grabbing the kill card are equal. You're not making any sense. You're ignoring math & logic despite what you may think. Honestly, just stop--you're smarting than you're coming across right now[/QUOTE]
Obviously the chances are equal, but chances are that the 1st person drawing the card will not get the kill card even though there's an equal chance. Now, once that person draws his card and it's blank we move to the next person who now has less cards to choose from and is more likely to draw the kill card.
If a person draws from 5 cards and then next time draws from 3 in which scenario is he most likely to draw the killcard? Come on now. You can't really tell me that just because mathematically everyone has an "equal" chance you would not try to be the first person to flip a card.
[QUOTE=JayTee;411111]Obviously the chances are equal, but chances are that the 1st person drawing the card will not get the kill card even though there's an equal chance. Now, once that person draws his card and it's blank we move to the next person who now has less cards to choose from and is more likely to draw the kill card.
If a person draws from 5 cards and then next time draws from 3 in which scenario is he most likely to draw the killcard? Come on now.[/QUOTE]
Are you for real? I take back the prior comment...you aren't smarter than this apparently
[QUOTE=kvm1977;411112]Are you for real? I take back the prior comment...you aren't smarter than this apparently[/QUOTE]
If you would rather choose to go 3rd or 4th rather than going 1st then you obviously lack basic logic skills.
[QUOTE=JayTee;411113]If you would rather choose to go 3rd or 4th rather than going 1st then you obviously lack basic logic skills.[/QUOTE]
LOL...learn the math with creates the logic. You are clearly not educated
[QUOTE=JayTee;411111]Obviously the chances are equal, but chances are that the 1st person drawing the card will not get the kill card even though there's an equal chance. Now, once that person draws his card and it's blank we move to the next person who now has less cards to choose from and is more likely to draw the kill card.[/QUOTE]
lol I don't even know how to explain any futher.
Let's say there are 4 people and 4 cards.
1st person (P1) walks up. You can understand this, there is a 1/4th chance that P1 draws the kill card. If P1 draws the kill card, the draw is done. P2, P3, P4 are free. In the off chance that P1 selects the kill card, [B]this scenario counts towards P2, P3, and P4 odds which you are not taking into consideration.[/B]
[QUOTE=EstimatedRoa;411115]lol I don't even know how to explain any futher.
Let's say there are 4 people and 4 cards.
1st person (P1) walks up. You can understand this, there is a 1/4th chance that P1 draws the kill card. If P1 draws the kill card, the draw is done. P2, P3, P4 are free. In the off chance that P1 selects the kill card, [B]this scenario counts towards P2, P3, and P4 odds which you are not taking into consideration.[/B][/QUOTE]
I understand what you're saying, mathematically speaking everyone has an equal chance, but at the same time tell me how many people have drawn the kill card when they were first to pick a card? I would feel a lot more confident going first than being 3rd or 4th. Call it coincidence or whatever you want, but so far from what we have seen is that going first has basically been a safe bet so far.
[QUOTE=JayTee;411116]I understand what you're saying, mathematically speaking everyone has an equal chance, but at the same time tell me how many people have drawn the kill card when they were first to pick a card? I would feel a lot more confident going first than being 3rd or 4th. Call it coincidence or whatever you want, but so far from what we have seen is that going first has basically been a safe bet so far.[/QUOTE]
5 episodes isn't much of a sample size to say that the person who picks first will never pick the kill card. Sure no one has picked the kill card on the first turn, but that doesn't mean that they have less of a chance than people picking at the end. Throwing conspiracy theories aside(production tinkering, players remember splotch marks), every person in the draw has an equal chance of drawing the kill card if they go first, in the middle, or last.
1st episode: 3rd person
2nd episode: last person
4th episode: 2nd person
5th episode: 3rd person
I'll take my chances going 1st every time. Have fun going into an elimination but hey at least you know you were mathematically right about the chances.
[QUOTE=JayTee;411116]I understand what you're saying, mathematically speaking everyone has an equal chance, but at the same time tell me how many people have drawn the kill card when they were first to pick a card? I would feel a lot more confident going first than being 3rd or 4th. Call it coincidence or whatever you want, but so far from what we have seen is that going first has basically been a safe bet so far.[/QUOTE]
Ever consider they reshoot some so it creates additional drama?
There's an benefit from pulling later...none
[QUOTE=kvm1977;411119]Ever consider they reshoot some so it creates additional drama?
There's an benefit from pulling later...none[/QUOTE]
Keeping Frank around would have created additional drama, but it looks like production liked to keep most of these things legit.
[QUOTE=JayTee;411118]1st episode: 3rd person
2nd episode: last person
4th episode: 2nd person
5th episode: 3rd person
I'll take my chances going 1st every time. Have fun going into an elimination but hey at least you know you were mathematically right about the chances.[/QUOTE]
Some people are so stupid it's mind boggling. Who the **** argues with math. That's like saying 10-5 doesn't =5.
[QUOTE=JayTee;411120]Keeping Frank around would have created additional drama, but it looks like production liked to keep most of these things legit.[/QUOTE]
What are you talking about?
First, you're denying the existence of math
Second, removing Frank has nothing to do with this. We know for a fact they re-shoot some scene. See Alton vs. Adam in the Gauntlet II--no one said they're altering the outcome--just creating drama
[QUOTE=kvm1977;411122]What are you talking about?
First, you're denying the existence of math
Second, removing Frank has nothing to do with this. We know for a fact they re-shoot some scene. See Alton vs. Adam in the Gauntlet II--no one said they're altering the outcome--just creating drama[/QUOTE]
I'm not denying anything I agreed with you that you are mathematically correct but I would still pick going 1st over any other spot based on what we've seen so far. Why you mad? And the only reason I brought Frank up is because you wanted to talk about production altering things.
[QUOTE=Viegasjuice;411121]Some people are so stupid it's mind boggling. Who the **** argues with math. That's like saying 10-5 doesn't =5.[/QUOTE]
Hey e-statter, tell me would you go draw a card first or any other spot? I mean mathematically speaking everyone has an equal chance, but would you pass up going first based on what we've seen so far?
[QUOTE=JayTee;411118]1st episode: 3rd person
2nd episode: last person
4th episode: 2nd person
5th episode: 3rd person
I'll take my chances going 1st every time. Have fun going into an elimination but hey at least you know you were mathematically right about the chances.[/QUOTE]
Ok, so for the guys, there's been a 36% (6/7*3/4*3/4*3/4) chance so far that no one from the guys side would select the kill card on the first draw. That's not crazy odds to defy. You can do what you want, but I wouldn't want to make decisions based off a sample size of 4.
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